Francesco Schiavi on Saudi Arabia’s Path: Balancing Ambition and Change

In an exclusive interview with Saudi Times, Francesco Salesio Schiavi, a renowned expert in geopolitics and strategic investments in the Middle East, shares his insights on Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans to reshape its economy and enhance its global influence.

With a focus on mega-projects like NEOM and Diriyah Gate, as well as growing investments in sports, culture, and tourism, the Kingdom is pursuing a future that balances modernity with tradition. Schiavi explores how these efforts are boosting Saudi Arabia’s soft power, driving significant societal changes, and addressing the challenges of regional competition in an evolving landscape.

Q: How Do Saudi Arabia's Sports, Culture, and Tourism Investments Serve Its Soft Power Objectives, and How Do These Initiatives Complement Its More Traditional Geopolitical Strategies? What Specific Regional and Global Outcomes Does Saudi Arabia Aim to Achieve Through These Efforts?

A: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 represents an ambitious plan to modernise the Kingdom by diversifying its economy away from oil while enhancing the Kingdom’s global image. This blueprint combines mega infrastructural projects – like NEOM, Diriyah Gate, and The Red Sea Project – alongside gradual reforms to enhance the business environment and boost private sector development.

Investments in sports, culture, and tourism are key pillars of the Kingdom’s soft power strategy, complementing its traditional reliance on energy diplomacy. In this framework, Saudi’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has been a central player in Vision 2030, having grown to manage over SAR 2.87 trillion ($765 billion) in assets in 2022, up from SAR 570 billion just seven years before. Since 2016, the General Entertainment Authority (GEA) has helped transform Saudi Arabia’s entertainment landscape too.

Over the years, the Kingdom has hosted major events such as the Saudi Grand Prix, Saudi Pro League, and LIV Golf, attracting global audiences. In the same vein the Kingdom will host the inaugural Olympic Esports Games, a testament to its growing influence in the global sports market (valued at $1.88 billion in 2022 and expected to grow rapidly).

These efforts aim to reset and shift Saudi Arabia’s global perceptions and establish it as a modern, open, and vibrant society; Riyadh’s investments in entertainment and tourism have driven economic growth, with the market expected to reach $4.2 billion by 2029, with an annual growth of 10.44%. This push also serves domestic goals, catering to the youthful population and enhancing quality of life. The FIFA World Cup 2034 bid and projects like King Salman Park and Al-Ula Development also aim to create jobs, diversify income streams, and reduce reliance on oil. 

However, these efforts occur against the backdrop of fierce regional competition, with Qatar and the UAE outperforming the Kingdom in key areas like foreign direct investment (FDI), logistics and tourism. In 2023, for instance, Saudi Arabia attracted just $19 billion in FDI, significantly lower than the $100 billion it aims for by 2030. High-profile projects like NEOM and Diriyah Gate have also faced delays and budgetary concerns, with the former target population revised from 1.5 million to 300,000. Despite these challenges, Saudi Arabia has made strides in other areas. The Kingdom hit its 100 million tourist goal in 2023 – though 79 million were domestic tourists, and 13.5 million international visitors coming for religious purposes, such as Hajj and Umrah.

Q: What Specific Societal Changes Have Resulted From Saudi Arabia's Rapid Modernisation, and How Are These Shifts Influencing Its Diplomatic and Economic Policies? Are There Notable Changes in Societal Values That Are Starting to Impact the Country's Approach to Foreign Relations?

A: Vsion 2030 marks a significant shift from previous Saudi plans, especially as it links economic diversification with socio-cultural transformation. In this framework, the societal shifts under Vision 2030 have been transformative, especially in terms of women’s empowerment, youth engagement, and social liberalisation. For instance, by accelerating reforms in women’s empowerment, Saudi Arabia has seen a transformation in gender roles, with women increasingly participating in public life, politics, and the workforce. Similar changes aim to foster the perception of a more inclusive economy where youth and women could contribute meaningfully to the nation’s growth and wellness.  

Similarly, a notable aspect of Vision 2030 is the cultivation of a new national identity (so called “Saudisation”) focusing on modernisation, cultural achievements, and economic progress, particularly among the youth. With the country’s youth bulge, education and vocational training play a critical role in this transformation. In line with the Vision’s goals, the Saudi government has emphasised the importance of STEM fields and entrepreneurship to align with growth sectors such as technology, tourism, and renewables. This focus on education and upskilling reflects Riyadh’s 

broader ambition to move away from oil-based employment and grow its private sector. In the same vein, Saudi authorities have also promoted social liberalisation, such as lifting bans on entertainment and expanding public cultural spaces, considered vital to engaging Saudi youth. 

Reforms, such as those overseen by the GEA, should represent a shift toward a more open, cosmopolitan society while still balancing Islamic values to ensure that traditional segments of society do not feel alienated. However, this process is not without challenges, as Riyadh tries to delicately balance conservative values with global expectations. And while job creation and unemployment are improving, with unemployment dropping to 7.7% in 2023, the reliance on the oil economy remains a concern. 

Saudi Arabia's modernisation has also inevitably impacted its foreign relations. Again, Vision’s economic diversification goals and modernised societal values are tied to Saudi desire to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and reshape/strengthen its global image – particularly with Western nations. As a result, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy increasingly reflects modern values around technology, entrepreneurship, and environmental initiatives, ensuring its relevance in the global arena. Nevertheless, the Kingdom’s broader goals face geopolitical risks that could derail progress. Supply chain crises, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a recent escalation of regional tensions has inevitably slowed down Vision 2030 goals.  

Q: How Does Saudi Arabia’s Approach to Societal Reforms Differ From That of Its Neighbouring Gulf States in Terms of Balancing Modernity With Tradition?

A: Saudi Arabia’s societal reforms, driven by Vision 2030, are ambitious but face unique challenges compared to its neighbours like the UAE and Qatar, where social liberalisation has been more gradual and less constrained by religious conservatism. While the Kingdom has achieved some results in women’s rights and entertainment, its larger and more conservative population—36.4 million Saudis versus 9.4 million Emiratis and 2.7 Qataris—makes implementing broader social changes more difficult. 

The UAE’s smaller population allows for faster social reforms, such as the toleration of (regulated) alcohol consumption and gambling and the liberalisation of relationships outside of marriage. In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s reforms, such as allowing women to drive and relaxing dress code restrictions, have occurred rapidly but remain within a religious framework. For instance, while Saudi Arabia has relaxed gender segregation, it continues to emphasise its role as the custodian of 

Islam’s Holiest Sites, making specific reforms slower or less likely to take hold. 

Moreover, Qatar and the UAE have succeeded at creating global business hubs with policies favourable to expatriates who dominate their economies. Qatar’s sports diplomacy, particularly hosting the FIFA World Cup 2022, allowed it to bypass stricter cultural limitations.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to attract $100 billion in FDI annually by 2030 may push it toward more pragmatic reforms, such as liberalising business regulations and labour policies to keep up with the regional competition.

Q: As Saudi Arabia Becomes More Open to Global Influences, What Are the Key Debates Within the Country About Defining 'Saudi Identity'? How Do Different Social Groups, Such as Youth, Traditionalists, and Expatriates, Shape This Evolving Narrative?

A: Vision 2030 has sparked ongoing debates about Saudi identity as the Kingdom opens up to global influences and navigates complex social transformations. Youth, who make up 70% of the population, are at the forefront of embracing these changes. Many young Saudis see economic growth, social liberalisation, and global integration as crucial for the country’s future, welcoming reforms that promote entertainment, tourism, and entrepreneurship. For them, a fusion of traditional values with cosmopolitan aspirations should define modern Saudi identity. 

However, this progressive outlook is not shared by all. Traditionalists, particularly from rural and conservative regions, view these reforms with scepticism, fearing that rapid modernisation could erode Islamic values and tribal customs. This has led to tension between those advocating for more Western-style freedoms and those wishing to maintain the country’s religious identity.

The government, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, attempted to navigate this divide by promoting modernisation within a framework that emphasises Islamic principles, ensuring that Saudi Arabia retains its religious character while moving forward. 

Meanwhile, expatriates have become an increasingly important part of this evolving identity. Historically separated from Saudi nationals, they are becoming more integrated into society, contributing to sectors like technology and tourism. Their growing presence challenges more “insular” definitions of Saudi identity, but they are also helping to internationalise Saudi culture, aligning with the aspirations of the youth. However, this influx of global influences also challenges more conservative segments of the population, who again worry about the dilution of Saudi culture.  

Balancing the expectations of millennials, traditionalists, and expatriates remains a delicate task, with the government working to ensure that economic modernisation does not alienate core cultural values. Francesco Salesio Schiavi shares his insights on how Saudi Arabia is shaping its global presence through ambitious mega-projects and strategic investments in sports, culture, and tourism, amidst regional competition.

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